Let's say you're playing blackjack at 25 units a hand, and the table is averaging 60 hands played per hour. Multiply 25 times 60 hands and you are playing through 1,500 units an hour. Let's say you play for four hours. With many casino games, you are entirely reliant on luck, but with blackjack your actions affect the outcomes of hands. Blackjack is still a game of chance; it’s just that luck isn’t the only factor that determines whether or not you win or lose. What this means in practice is that you can actually improve your chances of winning. Blackjack Probability Odds. Blackjack is actually one of the most popular games in the casino and also has some of the lowest odds of all the casino games, except casino craps of course. Generally their edge ranges from 1% to 15% depending on what variation of blackjack you are playing.
Odds are everywhere you look. Seriously. Odds are in a casino, your workplace, your day-to-day live and habits, your marriage and where in the world you live.
Don’t believe me? Take a look for yourself:
- Odds of having twins (21st century) – 3 in 100 or 3%
- Odds of getting a divorce – 40 to 50%
- Odds of being stuck by lightning – 1 in 5,000 or 1 in 700,000 in any given year
- Odds of being audited by the IRS – .4% if you make less than $200,000 / year
- Odds of being dealt a blackjack – About 4.83%
Odds are just the likelihood that something will happen. As a blackjack player you deal with this all the time.
Lets look at a couple real examples to show you what I mean.
Here are the odds of you busting your hand, depending on what you were dealt:
- 21 – 100%
- 20 – 92%
- 19 – 85%
- 18 – 77%
- 17 – 69%
- 16 – 62%
- 15 – 58%
- 14 – 56%
- 13 – 39%
- 12 – 31%
- <11 – 0%
Odds of Being Dealt Specific Hands
Here are the probabilities for being dealt a specific hand:
- Blackjack – 4.8%
- Standing Hand (17-20) – 30%
- Decision Hand – (1-16) – 38.7%
- No Bust – 26.5%
Here are the odds for the final hands that the dealer will make:
- Natural 21 – 4.82%
- 21 (3+ cards) – 7.36%
- 20 – 17.58%
- 19 – 13.48%
- 18 – 13.81%
- 17 – 14.58%
- 16 – 28.36%
Dealer vs. Player Odds
Finally, here are the odds of the dealer busting based on their up card:
- 2 – 35.30%
- 3 – 37.56%
- 4 – 40.28%
- 5 – 42.89%
- 6 – 42.08%
- 7 – 25.99%
- 8 – 23.86%
- 9 – 23.34%
- J,Q,K – 21.43%
- A – 11.65%
Of these examples, this is the most useful. Notice what hands the dealer is most likely to bust with. The dealer will most often bust with 4, 5 or 6, followed by 2 and 3.
The odds above are static. There’s nothing you can do to change them. However, you can find ways to improve your odds so that you lose fewer hands and less money. And the less money you lose, the more you can keep to play more blackjack.
Here’s what you can do to improve your odds in blackjack:
- Use basic blackjack strategy. Without basic strategy you’re playing at an 8% disadvantage. With strategy, however, the odds increase significantly. You’ll be playing at only .5 to 1.5% disadvantage.
- Find the best games. The rules make all the difference. For example, if you play a 6:5 blackjack game you’re adding a 1.39% disadvantage. If the dealer hits soft 17 that’s another .18%. However, it’s possible to find games where the player is paid 3:2 for blackjacks and the dealer stands on soft 17. So find those games. Also be careful about which blackjack variation you play. The best games to play are blackjack, Spanish 21, Vegas Strip BJ and Blackjack Switch.
- Avoid side bets. Side bets look exciting, because for a nominal amount you could possibly win a huge jackpot — worth hundreds or even thousands of dollars. The problem is that the odds against winning can be anywhere from 2-40%.
- Avoid wives tales. There are a lot of bad strategies like never busting (never hit a 12+), mimicking the dealer and assume that the dealer has a 10 in the whole (with ace up). The problem with using any of these strategies is that they increase the house edge from 3 to 10 percent.
You can do other things, too, like count cards or read books (usually a mix of basic strategy, card counting and general how-to’s for casino blackjack). However, you’ll improve your odds at winning at blackjack just by following my suggestions above.
Understanding the Long Run – Sample Size and Variance
I wanted to finish up this article with a brief explanation of odds, and how they work over the long run. You see, I think a lot of people will see the numbers above and get confused when they don’t match their own stats. In other words, someone might go to the casino play 500 hands of blackjack, and wonder why they didn’t get 24 natural blackjacks, or the other way around, why they got 42.
The thing is, odds and statistics are all about the long run. Long run usually meaning sample size, or the total number of hands (or games) played.
What that means is that over a significant sample size, hundreds of thousands or even millions of hands, the number of times you’ll receive a blackjack is about 4.82%. The more hands you play the truer this will become.
The reason why odds don’t match up in smaller sessions, say over 500 hands, is because of variance. There’s a technical term and definition for variance, but I’ll just give you my version; variance is the ups and downs you experience on your way to the long term (expected) results.
Mike Caro, a poker player and author, puts it this way:
A measure of the spread of statistical distribution about its mean or centre.
That means in a short time frame, it’s possible to experience more drastic odds. You might win or lose more than you’re supposed to. It also explains why people can go into a casino, not use basic strategy and win 3x as much as what they walked in with. The cards ran in their favor — they experienced a positive streak of variance.
So that’s the gist of it. So the next time you walk into the casino and have a wild swing one way or another, you know that that’s not normal, and that in the long run you’ll be closer to break-even so long as you stick to basic strategy — the plan with the best odds.
Blackjack Odds Of Winning Per Hand
How Do You Calculate Blackjack Odds?
Odds Of Winning Blackjack Hands
Blackjack is perhaps the only casino game that offers a skilled player a competitive advantage against the house. Provided players use basic blackjack strategy, card counting skills, and carefully select the right game, it’s entirely possible to whittle away the house edge. Caesars Games – a leading provider of online slot games – conducted extensive research into the best blackjack game available to players. One game comes up trumps every time, Single Deck Classic Blackjack!
Classic Blackjack Odds
One of the world’s most renowned authorities on casino game probabilities is the Wizard of Odds. This comprehensive gambling portal provides in-depth information on the house edge of blackjack games, given specific rules of play. Let’s assume that 1 deck of cards is used in a game of Classic Blackjack. Several other assumptions need to be made to calculate the house edge, including the following:
• Dealer stands on soft 17
• Players can re-split Aces
• Players can hit split Aces
• Players can re-split to 4 hands
• Players can Double after a Split
• No Surrender and Blackjack pays 3: 2
• Players can Double on any first 2 cards
• Player does not lose original bet against the Dealer Blackjack
Given these rules, the player has a 0.23967% edge over the house. When using a basic strategy with a cut card, the player still has an edge over the house of 0.08797%. If a continuous shuffler is used, the player edge is 0.20097%. The house edge increases when the number of decks of cards increases. For example, if all the rules stay the same and 8 decks of cards are used, the house edge with optimal gameplay is 0.30518%!
Why Would a Casino Offer Classic Blackjack to Players?
Believe it or not, there are a handful of games provided by casinos that offer players a competitive advantage. Classic Blackjack is one of them. True, you are unlikely to find this game at many Atlantic City casinos or Las Vegas casinos for this reason. Classic Blackjack is played with just 52 cards comprising 4 suits (diamonds, hearts, clubs, and spades) with 2-10 worth their face value, Aces worth 1 or 11, and Jacks, Queens, and Kings worth 10.
There is an important blackjack rule that you probably don’t want to miss. Look carefully at the table and see whether blackjack pays 3:2, or 6:5. The best variant of this casino card game is the 3:2 version. Consider the payouts if you place a $100 bet and you hit blackjack. On the one hand you can win $150, and on the other you can win $120 – it’s a no-brainer. Equally important is what the dealer does on 16 and 17. Most of the time, the dealer is required to draw to 16 and stand on all 17s. Sometimes, the dealer is only required to stand on soft 17 (Includes an Ace).
Easy Blackjack Tips to Remember
Best Odds Of Winning At A Casino
• Always split a pair of Aces
• Stand if your hand total is a hard 17 – 21 (no Aces)
• Stand if you have a soft hand total of 19 – 21 (includes Aces)
• Always hit if your hand total is less than/equal to 11 – you can never bust!
• A natural blackjack (10-value card + Ace) beats any hand total that sums to 21
• Always use blackjack strategy charts and odds calculators to stand the best chance of winning
How Hard Is It to Beat the Dealer in Blackjack?
The trick to playing blackjack well is knowing which games to play, which rules to select, and how to manage your bankroll well. Blackjack is primarily a skill-based casino card game. An element of luck is involved since players don’t know what the next card is going to be with any certainty. You cannot alter the cards you have been dealt – you can only manage the way you play them. A fixed set of rules requires blackjack dealers to play a certain way. Like all casino games, the house has an inherent advantage, which is typically limited to around 1% in blackjack.
You may be wondering why the house has an advantage over the player? The reason for this is simple: The dealer acts after the player. If the player busts, the dealer is not required to continue playing, and wins by default. Fortunately, there are multiple blackjack guides, articles, rules, charts, and calculators that can teach players the art of the deal. It’s important to understand key terms in blackjack such as:
• Hit – take another card.
• Double Down – opt for one final card, double your bet, and stand.
• Stand – take no further action and stick with what you have.
• Split – Split identical cards such as a pair of Kings, a pair of Two’s, into 2 separate hands with additional wagers on each hand.
• Surrender – this option (if available) allows players to surrender a bad hand for 50% of their bet.
• Choose 3:2 over 6:5 on Blackjack – this simply gives you a higher payout
The importance of basic blackjack strategy cannot be stressed enough. This is typically represented in a grid/chart which indicates the following:
• The dealer’s upcard versus the player’s hand
• Multiple combinations are possible from 2 – Ace (for the dealer) and all the available 2-card combinations for the player.
• Players must either hit, double, stand, or split depending on the cards the dealer is showing and the player’s hole cards.
Odds Of Winning Playing Blackjack At A Casino
Players are advised to select blackjack games that require a dealer to stand on all 17. This makes it easier for the player to win in the long-term. Another important point to bear in mind is that of card shuffling machines. If you are an experienced card counter, it is best to avoid these machines since it makes it difficult to keep an accurate count.
Perhaps the most important rule for the game of blackjack, or any casino game is effective bankroll management. If you’re playing Classic Blackjack, you must manage your bankroll well. Set loss limits and profit limits and always know when to walk away